HCM Risk-SCD (5-year Sudden Cardiac Death, HCM)
HCM Risk-SCD: the ESC 5-year sudden-cardiac-death model for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy from age, maximal LV wall thickness, left-atrial diameter, LVOT gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained VT, and unexplained syncope.
Open the calculator → Runs in your browser. Data leaves only if you deliberately send a problem report from the interactive tool.
Example
- Age
- 40 years
- Maximal LV wall thickness
- 25 mm
- Left-atrial diameter
- 45 mm
- Maximal (rest/Valsalva) LVOT gradient
- 50 mmHg
- Non-sustained VT on Holter
- Yes
Result: HCM Risk-SCD 7.35% — high 5-year SCD risk (≥ 6%).
The tool opens with these values already filled in. Replace them with your own.
What the result means
- Bands
- ESC guidance: < 4% low, 4–6% intermediate, ≥ 6% high 5-year risk — informing the ICD discussion. Validated for age ≥ 16 without prior arrest/sustained VT, wall thickness < 35 mm, or prior ICD.
What you enter
- Age
- Maximal LV wall thickness
- Left-atrial diameter
- Maximal (rest/Valsalva) LVOT gradient
- Family history of sudden cardiac death
- Non-sustained VT on Holter
- Unexplained syncope
How this is calculated
- Model
- 5-year SCD probability = 1 − 0.998^exp(PI); PI sums the published coefficients for age, LV wall thickness (and its square), LA diameter, LVOT gradient, family history of SCD, NSVT, and syncope.
O'Mahony C, Jichi F, Pavlou M, et al. A novel clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-SCD). Eur Heart J. 2014;35(30):2010-2020. Read the source ↗
A reference and educational tool. Not medical, legal, or financial advice, and not a substitute for clinician judgment.