MESA 10-Year CHD Risk (with coronary-artery calcium)
MESA 10-year CHD risk: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis engine, with and without the coronary artery calcium score, from age, sex, race/ethnicity, lipids, BP, diabetes, smoking, family history, and lipid/BP medication.
Open the calculator → Runs in your browser. Data leaves only if you deliberately send a problem report from the interactive tool.
Example
- Age
- 60 years
- Male sex
- Yes
- Race / ethnicity
- White (reference)
- Total cholesterol
- 200 mg/dL
- HDL cholesterol
- 50 mg/dL
- Systolic BP
- 125 mmHg
- Coronary artery calcium
- 100
Result: MESA 10-year CHD risk: 7.34% with CAC 100, 4.86% without CAC.
The tool opens with these values already filled in. Replace them with your own.
What the result means
- Output
- reported with and without CAC so the calcium refinement is visible. Cross-links ascvd / prevent.
What you enter
- Age
- Male sex
- Race / ethnicity
- Total cholesterol
- HDL cholesterol
- Systolic BP
- Coronary artery calcium (Agatston, optional)
- Diabetes mellitus
The other 4 fields
- Current smoker
- On lipid-lowering medication
- On blood-pressure medication
- Family history of heart attack
How this is calculated
- Model
- penalized Cox on raw (uncentered) traditional factors (mg/dL cholesterol); the with-CAC model adds 0.2743 x ln(Agatston + 1). White is the reference race. Risk = 1 - S0^exp(sum beta*x).
McClelland RL, Jorgensen NW, Budoff M, et al. 10-year coronary heart disease risk prediction using coronary artery calcium and traditional risk factors: derivation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2015;66(15):1643-1653. Read the source ↗
A reference and educational tool. Not medical, legal, or financial advice, and not a substitute for clinician judgment.