MESA 10-Year CHD Risk (with coronary-artery calcium)

MESA 10-year CHD risk: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis engine, with and without the coronary artery calcium score, from age, sex, race/ethnicity, lipids, BP, diabetes, smoking, family history, and lipid/BP medication.

Open the calculator → Runs in your browser. Data leaves only if you deliberately send a problem report from the interactive tool.

Example

Age
60 years
Male sex
Yes
Race / ethnicity
White (reference)
Total cholesterol
200 mg/dL
HDL cholesterol
50 mg/dL
Systolic BP
125 mmHg
Coronary artery calcium
100

Result: MESA 10-year CHD risk: 7.34% with CAC 100, 4.86% without CAC.

The tool opens with these values already filled in. Replace them with your own.

What the result means

Output
reported with and without CAC so the calcium refinement is visible. Cross-links ascvd / prevent.

What you enter

  • Age
  • Male sex
  • Race / ethnicity
  • Total cholesterol
  • HDL cholesterol
  • Systolic BP
  • Coronary artery calcium (Agatston, optional)
  • Diabetes mellitus
The other 4 fields
  • Current smoker
  • On lipid-lowering medication
  • On blood-pressure medication
  • Family history of heart attack
How this is calculated
Model
penalized Cox on raw (uncentered) traditional factors (mg/dL cholesterol); the with-CAC model adds 0.2743 x ln(Agatston + 1). White is the reference race. Risk = 1 - S0^exp(sum beta*x).

McClelland RL, Jorgensen NW, Budoff M, et al. 10-year coronary heart disease risk prediction using coronary artery calcium and traditional risk factors: derivation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2015;66(15):1643-1653. Read the source ↗

A reference and educational tool. Not medical, legal, or financial advice, and not a substitute for clinician judgment.

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Built by Clay Good. Source on GitHub.