MESS (first-seizure recurrence risk)
MESS (Multicentre Study of Early Epilepsy and Single Seizures, Kim 2006): a 0-4 seizure-recurrence risk after a first unprovoked seizure from number of seizures (0-2), a neurological disorder, and an abnormal EEG.
Open the calculator → Runs in your browser. Data leaves only if you deliberately send a problem report from the interactive tool.
Example
- Seizures to date
- 4 or more seizures (+2)
Result: MESS high risk (score 2/4): more than 50% recurrence within 3-5 years even with immediate treatment, and about 65% at 5 years if treatment is deferred.
The tool opens with these values already filled in. Replace them with your own.
What the result means
- Index
- seizures at presentation (1 = 0, 2-3 = +1, >= 4 = +2), neurological disorder (+1), abnormal EEG (+1); total 0-4 -> low (0) / medium (1) / high (>= 2).
- Recurrence
- risk-group ranges over 3-5 years: low ~30-39% both arms; medium ~35-39% immediate vs ~50-56% deferred; high > 50% immediate, ~65% at 5 yr deferred.
What you enter
- Seizures to date (1 / 2-3 / 4+)
- Neurological disorder
- Abnormal EEG
How this is calculated
Kim LG, Johnson TL, Marson AG, Chadwick DW; MRC MESS Study Group. Prediction of risk of seizure recurrence after a single seizure and early epilepsy. Lancet Neurol. 2006;5(4):317-322. Read the source ↗
A reference and educational tool. Not medical, legal, or financial advice, and not a substitute for clinician judgment.