Bayesian Risk Table: Prior, Conditional, Joint and Posterior
A Bayesian risk table for two or more hypotheses: prior, each conditional, joint and posterior.
Open the calculator → Runs in your browser. Data leaves only if you deliberately send a problem report from the interactive tool.
Example
- One hypothesis per line
- Carrier, 1/2, 1/2, 1/2, 1/2 Not a carrier, 1/2, 1, 1, 1
Result: Posteriors: Carrier 0.1111; Not a carrier 0.8889. Most probable: Not a carrier.
The tool opens with these values already filled in. Replace them with your own.
What you enter
- One hypothesis per line: name, prior, then a conditional per piece of evidence
- Normalize priors that do not sum to 1
How this is calculated
Citation
Stated arithmetic: Bayes' theorem, joint probability as the prior times the product of the conditionals, and the posterior as each joint over the sum of the joints.
A reference and educational tool. Not medical, legal, or financial advice, and not a substitute for clinician judgment.